Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,237$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(388 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,171.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,171.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $97$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(11.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $162$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,172$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,780.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 56.2)}}\) (asimptote \(34,780.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,871$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(332 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,927.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,927.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,330$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,309$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,995.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,995.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $235$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(47.4 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(227.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,042$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,493$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(697 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,630.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,630.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $306$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(33.6 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(306.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,387$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,380$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,262.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,262.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $561$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(99 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{548.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(548.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $978$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,803$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(505 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.27 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.2}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 22.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,235$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(7.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,988.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54,988.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,186$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,913.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,913.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,061$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $252,246$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262,156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.7)}}\) (asimptote \(262,156.7\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,124$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,242.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,242.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $214,988$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $228,006$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,361.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(222,361.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,486$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,437.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31,437.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,960$ on 2020-05-21
